Philippines poverty rate at 15.5% in 2023

The Philippines’ poverty rate dropped to 15.5% last year from 18.1% in 2021, with rising food prices limiting the reduction in the number of poor, the government’s statistics agency said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said there were 17.54 million people living below the poverty line, a decrease of 2.4 million from the previous survey two years earlier.

The PSA considers individuals as “poor” if their incomes are not enough to buy basic food and non-food needs.

The government aims to reduce poverty incidence to 9% by the end of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s term in office in 2028.

“If food inflation had been lower, of course the reduction in poverty could be much, much bigger,” National Statistician Dennis Mapa told a news conference.

The average inflation rate last year was 6.0%, well above the central bank’s 2% to 4% comfort range.

PSA conducts a family income and expenses survey every two years to determine poverty incidence and other income indicators. Over 160,000 families were interviewed for the survey, PSA said.

Source: Business World

R&I upgrades PHL credit rating to ‘A-’

Japan-based Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) upgraded the Philippines’ investment grade rating to “A-” amid the country’s strong economic performance.

“Based on macroeconomic stability and high economic growth path as well as expected continuous improvement in fiscal balance, R&I has upgraded the Foreign Currency Issuer Rating to ‘A-,’” it said in a document posted on its website.

This was one notch up from the country’s previous rating of “BBB+” assigned in August a year ago.

The credit rater also assigned a “stable” outlook for the Philippines from “positive” previously. According to R&I, a positive or negative outlook is not a statement indicating a future change of a rating. If neither a positive nor negative outlook is appropriate, it assigns a stable outlook.

“The Philippine economy will likely see stable growth and continuous improvement in the level of national income against the backdrop of active public and private sector investments, development of domestic business sectors such as business process outsourcing, and favorable demographics, among other elements,” R&I said.

The Philippine economy expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter, the fastest in five quarters or since 6.4% in the first quarter of 2023.

“The Philippine economy has been showing fast growth among the major economies in Southeast Asia,” it added.

At 6.3%, the Philippines’ second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was the second fastest in Southeast Asia, only behind Vietnam (6.9%) and ahead of Malaysia (5.8%) and Indonesia (5%).

The government is targeting 6-7% growth this year and 6.5-7.5% for 2025.

R&I also noted the country’s improved fiscal management as debt remains “affordable, given the manageable burden of interest payment.”

“The fiscal balance as a share of GDP, which had deteriorated during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic, has improved and the government debt ratio will likely start falling in a year or two,” it added.

As of the second quarter, the government’s deficit-to-GDP ratio stood at 5.3%, still below the 5.6% deficit ceiling set for this year.

Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio eased to 60.9% in the second quarter from 61% a year earlier. It is expected to ease further to 60.6% by end-2024.

R&I also said that the Philippines’ current account deficit is also “not necessarily a negative element” in its assessment.

“The foreign exchange reserves stand at a sufficient level in comparison with that of imports. Despite the liabilities in excess of financial assets of international investment position, the gap between liabilities and assets remains at a low level relative to GDP. R&I, thus, believes that the external risk is limited.”

The central bank projects a $4.7-billion current account deficit for 2024, equivalent to 1% of GDP. The current account deficit stood at $1.7 billion in the first quarter, equivalent to 1.6% of GDP.

Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said in a statement that this was the Marcos administration’s first credit rating upgrade.

“Our refined Medium-Term Fiscal Program is our blueprint for our ‘road to A rating,’” he said.

“This ensures that we can reduce our deficit and debt gradually in a realistic manner, while creating more jobs, increasing our people’s incomes, growing the economy further, and decreasing poverty in the process. Sticking to this program can help us get there faster.”

The Department of Finance said that improved credit rating from R&I will help attract foreign investors and access more affordable borrowing terms.

“This allows the government to channel funds that would have otherwise been allotted for interest payments towards more development programs such as more infrastructure projects, improved social services, better healthcare system, and quality education.”

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said that the credit upgrade means lower credit risk which “allows a country to access funding from development partners and international debt capital markets at lower cost.”

“The BSP is committed to delivering on its mandate of promoting price stability, financial stability, and a safe and efficient payments and settlements system as this broadly supports sustained and inclusive economic growth,’’ BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the latest credit upgrade puts the Philippines three notches above the minimum investment grade rating.

“This is already similar and somewhat moved in line with the ‘A-’ credit rating given by another Japanese credit rating agency, JCR,” he added.

The Philippines currently holds a “A-” rating from the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR), “BBB” from Fitch Ratings, “Baa2” from Moody’s Ratings, and “BBB+” from S&P Global Ratings.

The government is targeting to achieve an “A” level rating before the end of the administration.

Source: Business World

Asia Pacific Hotels & Hospitality Sector Trends 2024

With the Asia Pacific hotel market continuing to undergo structural change, hotel owners and operators are fine-tuning operational and branding strategies. Increased labour and utilities costs, limited new supply, and the prolonged peak of the interest rate cycle are among the driving factors. 

Major global hotel operators are expanding rapidly across the region, with almost half of the new hotels in the development pipeline being developed in conjunction with five hotel groups: Marriott (60,566 rooms), Accor (47,052 rooms), IHG (34,227 rooms), Hilton (31,606 rooms) and Wyndham (21,455 rooms). These operators continue to invest in loyalty programmes and niche segments to capture market share while also significantly expanding their technological capabilities.

Despite prolonged high interest rates globally, hotel investment in Asia Pacific has been resilient, driven by continued interest in Japan and Australia, a record-breaking year for serviced residence sales in mainland China, and a steady flow of deals in a strongly performing Korea market. 

This report explores the key trends impacting the hotel sector in Asia Pacific, including an analysis of the current market landscape, the latest activities of the major operators, asset management and investment trends, and ESG considerations.

Key Trends

Operators keep daily rates elevated as a result of limited supply, elevated demand and rising labour costs: While hotels have successfully adapted to lower levels of applicants and staffing, new labour-related issues present a challenge to owners and operators. With this challenge expected to persist for the rest of 2024, operators will look to keep daily rates high to capture some of these losses on balance sheets.

Major global operators continue to expand aggressively, with increased emphasis on lifestyle brands: With the ‘big 5’ operators expanding their global market share from 20% to 24% over the past six years, the trend is set to continue as the push for greater presence across all segments continues.

A large part of this strategy is the expansion into the lifestyle sector, with the brand loyalty programs, avant-garde design and wellness initiatives driving the demand.

Investment robust despite debt-related headwinds; investors maintain preference for upscale+ branded assets: Amid ongoing capital market dislocation, the upscale+ segment has emerged as the most appealing segment for hotel investors in Asia Pacific. This has been driven by growth in global wealth and travellers’ willingness to spend more on accommodation following the prolonged border closures witnessed during the pandemic.

Adoption of Sustainability / ESG initiatives continues; hotels with strong ESG initiatives set to outperform: The Asia Pacific hotels and hospitality industry’s commitment to ESG initiatives continues to gain momentum. Rising energy costs, which have increased significantly since the onset of the pandemic, along with further commitment to ESG initiatives are set to accelerate the industry’s focus on sustainability. Other supportive factors include a shift in guests’ preferences toward more sustainable tourism, along with growing demand for disclosure around climate risk.

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Source: CBRE