Climate change made 2024 the hottest year on record.

Scorching temperatures across the world set troubling new records. This is what it felt like  

Over and over, the numbers tell the same story: 2024 was Earth’s hottest year on record, knocking the previous record holder 2023 out of the top spot.

But temperatures alone can’t describe the human cost: humidity that challenges the body’s ability to cool itself; nighttime temps that rob people of sleep; power outages; wildfire smoke; ruined crops; rising cases of mosquito-borne disease.

Meanwhile, record-breaking water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico fueled hurricanes Helene and Milton. Helene’s torrential rains caused flooding across six states in the U.S. Southeast, killing over 200 people.

Other parts of the world have their own stories to tell about the impact of 2024’s extreme heat. Here are some of those accounts.

1 PHOENIX | May–September Arizona’s capital experienced 113 straight days of daytime temperatures topping 100° Fahrenheit, with hundreds of heat-related deaths recorded. Phoenix has one of the world’s largest urban heat-island magnitudes: City temperatures are about 12 degrees higher than those in surrounding rural areas.

2 MEXICO CITY | May–June An extreme heat wave, on top of an extended drought, caused blackouts and was linked to over 120 deaths. The resulting water scarcity raised fears that North America’s largest metropolis was just weeks from Day Zero — a theoretical day when the region would run out of water.

3 SÃO PAULO | August–September Extreme heat in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter plus prolonged drought fueled wildfires in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. Fine particles in São Paulo’s air were 14 times the World Health Organization’s recommended limit, causing the city to be ranked as the world’s most polluted for four consecutive days, from September 9 to September 12.

4 RIO DE JANEIRO | March During a heat wave in Brazil, the maximum measured temperature reached 107.6° F. But it felt even hotter. The heat index — a measurement that also includes humidity — soared to a record 144.1° F, testing the limits of humans’ heat tolerance.

5 PARIS | July–August Temperatures during the Olympics may not have broken records, but they were still scorching. Without climate change, Paris would have been about 5 degrees cooler, researchers determined. That made the Games more dangerous for athletes. Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, heating at a rate twice the global average.

6 LONGYEARBYEN | July–August August temps in the world’s northernmost settlement, on Norway’s Spitsbergen Island, were the highest ever recorded for that month, soaring to 68° F — more than 3 degrees higher than the previous record, set in 1997. In July, ice caps there broke the all-time record for daily melting, losing ice at a rate five times the norm.

7 BAMAKO | February–April Heat waves across West Africa’s Sahel region caused power cuts and spikes in hospital admissions. From April 1 to April 4, a hospital in Mali’s capital recorded a total of 102 deaths; the previous year, the hospital noted 130 deaths for all of April. Climate change amped up daytime highs by 2.7 degrees and kept nights 3.6 degrees warmer than usual.

8 GAZA | April A three-day heat wave exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Palestine. Nearly 2 million displaced people in refugee camps and overcrowded shelters lacked protection from the heat and faced water and food shortages, power outages, limited access to health care and spikes in waterborne diseases.

9 DELHI | May–June India’s capital territory endured 40 straight days of daytime highs reaching 104° F, with a new record set on May 28 of 121.8° F. The unrelenting heat killed over 100 people, the nonprofit organization HeatWatch India estimates.

10 MANILA | April The Philippines’ megalopolis of over 14 million people sweltered through a deadly 15-day heat wave, an event that would have been impossible without climate change. The heat brought water shortages, crop losses and school closures.

11 EAST ANTARCTICA | July At winter’s peak, temperatures across a big chunk of the continent hovered at –4° F, about 50 degrees higher than normal. The event was the largest temperature anomaly anywhere this year.

Source: Science News December

How Global Trade Is Shifting as the World’s Population Ages

A demographic alarm bell is ringing in Japan, where the birthrate fell last year to its lowest point in recorded history. The sharp drop in births from the previous year marks the eighth consecutive year of decline. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida labeled this demographic crisis Japan’s greatest challenge. But this is more than just Japan’s story.

The world is aging, fast. As it does, global trade will shift in unexpected ways. Japan offers a preview of what much of the world will soon face, as economies everywhere start to see record-low birthrates. South Korea recently recorded the lowest birthrate globally, while Italy hasn’t seen an increase in births since 2008. And this is no longer just a challenge for wealthy, industrialized countries.

In Latin America and South Asia, the population ages 65 and older is quickly rising. Life expectancy is rising even as fewer people are being born. The result: Nearly 1 in 4 people worldwide will be 65 or older by century’s end. That shift could reshape the world in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

Countries are scrambling to adapt to the financial strain of aging populations.

Germany has raised the retirement age, a move echoed across Europe. Greece has introduced a controversial six-day workweek, while China, reversing its one-child policy, now urges families to have three children. Japan is turning to automation to fill the gaps left by retiring workers, and is bringing in more migrant workers.

Amid these shifts, Africa’s youthful population remains a demographic outlier, with over half of its population younger than 25 years old. As economies age, they may experience a decline in overall production and consumption. With fewer workers available, production is likely to move away from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive industries, making capital productivity crucial for sustaining output and growth.

The “consumption- retirement puzzle” adds uncertainty to consumption patterns. While traditional theories suggest consumption remains steady throughout life, in reality, some retirees may spend less due to insufficient savings, shifting their focus to essentials. In aging economies, consumption is moving toward goods and services that cater to an older population. Industrial equipment, transport, and work-related expenditures are giving way to increased spending on healthcare and other essentials for seniors.

In Japan, for example, demand for strollers and baby diapers has plummeted while demand for adult diapers has surged. Similar patterns are emerging globally. In China, spending on medical care and food is rising, while expenditures on transportation, household durables, and recreation are declining with age.

Simulations done by economists Sagiri Kitao and Tomoaki Yamada for Japan through 2050 suggest consumption will fall across the board as the population continues to age, with nondurable goods declining the slowest. The U.S. and Singapore are following a similar trajectory, reflecting a broader global realignment in consumption driven by demographic changes.

As populations age, changes in consumption and labor supply will reshape the structure of global trade, though the full impact isn’t yet understood and depends on the import content of consumption. Some studies hint that older economies might altogether trade less, focusing instead on more capital-intensive goods, while the aging workforce may change the skills used in producing traded commodities. Impacts on trade composition, however, remain an open question. Industrial and durable goods are among the top import and export categories globally.

We can expect these categories to shrink as work-related expenditures decline. Similarly, as birthrates fall and fewer children are born, the global market for toys, infant products, and sports equipment may contract. Such imports are already declining in countries with a higher average age, such as Japan. However, these trends are suggestive, as reduced imports could potentially be offset by increased domestic production.

Conversely, we can anticipate an increase in the trade of services, particularly in areas like healthcare and eldercare. Medical services, provided remotely or through medical tourism, will likely become a more significant component of global trade. Japan’s digital health industry is already growing fast. Its telemedicine market is expected to reach $404.5 million by 2025 (due to “shortages in medical specialists”), and broader healthcare IT, including wearable tech and online monitoring, is projected to hit $16 billion.

The changing demographics suggest a major transformation in global trade. And as the goods and services exchanged shift, there will be opportunities for countries to change their standing in global trade. For younger, less industrialized African economies, the challenge is to leverage their demographic advantage and pivot toward sectors that can thrive in a world less reliant on industrial goods.

Traditional paths to higher-income status, like export-driven industrialization, may lose their effectiveness in an aging global economy with diminishing demand for such products. Wealthier nations will need to delay retirements, rely on migrant labor, and invest in technology to sustain productivity.

Developing nations with aging populations face challenges without access to new technologies, potentially relying on older workers for longer. Addressing this demographic shift will deeply affect markets, production, and trade. It will also demand unprecedented global coordination to ensure that the world can produce and afford what it needs, with no one—and not a single country—left behind.

Source: Barrons

Global water crisis leaves half of world food production at risk in next 25 years

Landmark review says urgent action needed to conserve resources and save ecosystems that supply fresh water

More than half the world’s food production will be at risk of failure within the next 25 years as a rapidly accelerating water crisis grips the planet, unless urgent action is taken to conserve water resources and end the destruction of the ecosystems on which our fresh water depends, experts have warned in a landmark review.

Half the world’s population already faces water scarcity, and that number is set to rise as the climate crisis worsens, according to a report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water published on Thursday.

Demand for fresh water will outstrip supply by 40% by the end of the decade, because the world’s water systems are being put under “unprecedented stress”, the report found.

The commission found that governments and experts have vastly underestimated the amount of water needed for people to have decent lives. While 50 to 100 litres a day are required for each person’s health and hygiene, in fact people require about 4,000 litres a day in order to have adequate nutrition and a dignified life. For most regions, that volume cannot be achieved locally, so people are dependent on trade – in food, clothing and consumer goods – to meet their needs.

Some countries benefit more than others from “green water”, which is soil moisture that is necessary for food production, as opposed to “blue water” from rivers and lakes. The report found that water moves around the world in “atmospheric rivers” which transport moisture from one region to another.

About half the world’s rainfall over land comes from healthy vegetation in ecosystems that transpires water back into the atmosphere and generates clouds that then move downwind. China and Russia are the main beneficiaries of these “atmospheric river” systems, while India and Brazil are the major exporters, as their landmass supports the flow of green water to other regions. Between 40% and 60% of the source of fresh water rainfall is generated from neighbouring land use.

“The Chinese economy depends on sustainable forest management in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Baltic region,” said Prof Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the co-chairs of the commission. “You can make the same case for Brazil supplying fresh water to Argentina. This interconnectedness just shows that we have to place fresh water in the global economy as a global common good.”

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the president of Singapore and a co-chair of the commission, said countries must start cooperating on the management of water resources before it was too late.

“We have to think radically about how we are going to preserve the sources of fresh water, how we are going to use it far more efficiently, and how we are going to be able to have access to fresh water available to every community, including the vulnerable – in other words, how we preserve equity [between rich and poor],” Shanmugaratnam said.

Global fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts

The Global Commission on the Economics of Water was set up by the Netherlands in 2022, drawing on the work of dozens of leading scientists and economists, to form a comprehensive view of the state of global hydrological systems and how they are managed. Its 194-page report is the biggest global study to examine all aspects of the water crisis and suggest remedies for policymakers.

The findings were surprisingly stark, said Rockström. “Water is victim number one of the [climate crisis], the environmental changes we see now aggregating at the global level, putting the entire stability of earth’s systems at risk,” he told the Guardian. “[The climate crisis] manifests itself first and foremost in droughts and floods. When you think of heatwaves and fires, the really hard impacts are via moisture – in the case of fires, [global heating] first dries out landscapes so that they burn.”

Every 1C increase in global temperatures adds another 7% of moisture to the atmosphere, which has the effect of “powering up” the hydrological cycle far more than would happen under normal variations. The destruction of nature is also further fuelling the crisis, because cutting down forests and draining wetlands disrupts the hydrological cycle that depends on transpiration from trees and the storage of water in soils.

Harmful subsidies are also distorting the world’s water systems, and must be addressed as a priority, the experts found. More than $700bn (£540bn) of subsidies each year go to agriculture, and a high proportion of these are misdirected, encouraging farmers to use more water than they need for irrigation or in wasteful practices. Industry also benefits – about 80% of the wastewater used by industries around the world is not recycled.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, also a co-chair of the commission, said countries must redirect the subsidies, axing harmful ones while ensuring poor people were not disadvantaged. “We must have a basket of policy tools working together if we are to get the three Es – efficiency, equity and environmental sustainability and justice. Therefore we have to couple the pricing of water with appropriate subsidies,” she said.

At present, subsidies mainly benefit those who are better off, Okonjo-Iweala added. “Industry is getting a lot of the subsidy, and richer people. So what we need are better targeted subsidies. We need to identify the poor people who really need this,” she said.

The water crisis has an outsized impact on women, one of the commission’s co-chairs said. Photograph: Anjum Naveed/AP

Developing countries must also be given access to the finance they need to overhaul their water systems, provide safe water and sanitation, and halt the destruction of the natural environment, the report found.

Mariana Mazzucato, professor of economics at University College London, and a co-chair of the commission, said loans made by public sector banks to developing countries should be made conditional on water reforms. “These could be improving water conservation and the efficiency of water use, or direct investment for water-intensive industries,” she said. “[We must ensure] profits are reinvested in productive activity such as research and development around water issues.”

Water problems also had an outsized impact on women and girls, Mazzucato added. “One of our commissioners is Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, the mayor of Freetown in Sierra Leone. She says most of the rapes and abuse of women actually happen when they’re going to fetch water,” Mazzucato said. “Child mortality, gender parity, the water collection burden, the food security burden – they’re all connected.”

Five main takeaways from the report

The world has a water crisis

More than 2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, and 3.6 billion people – 44% of the population – lack access to safe sanitation. Every day, 1,000 children die from lack of access to safe water. Demand for fresh water is expected to outstrip its supply by 40% by the end of this decade. This crisis is worsening – without action, by 2050 water problems will shave about 8% off global GDP, with poor countries facing a 15% loss. Over half of the world’s food production comes from areas experiencing unstable trends in water availability.

There is no coordinated global effort to address this crisis

Despite the interconnectedness of global water systems there are no global governance structures for water. The UN has held only one water conference in the past 50 years, and only last month appointed a special envoy for water.

Climate breakdown is intensifying water scarcity

The impacts of the climate crisis are felt first on the world’s hydrological systems, and in some regions those systems are facing severe disruption or even collapse. Drought in the Amazon, floods across Europe and Asia, and glacier melt in mountains, which causes both flooding and droughts downstream, are all examples of the impacts of extreme weather that are likely to get worse in the near future. People’s overuse of water is also worsening the climate crisis – for instance, by draining carbon-rich peatlands and wetlands that then release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Water is artificially cheap for some and too expensive for others

Subsidies to agriculture around the world often have unintended consequences for water, providing perverse incentives for farmers to over-irrigate their crops or use water wastefully. Industries also have their water use subsidised, or their pollution ignored, in many countries. Meanwhile, poor people in developing countries frequently pay a high price for water, or can only access dirty sources. Realistic pricing for water that removes harmful subsidies but protects the poor must be a priority for governments.

Water is a common good

All of human life depends on water, but it is not recognised for the indispensable resource it is. The authors of the report urge a rethink of how water is regarded – not as an endlessly renewable resource, but as a global common good, with a global water pact by governments to ensure they protect water sources and create a “circular economy” for water in which it is reused and pollution cleaned up. Developing nations must be given access to finance to help them end the destruction of natural ecosystems that are a key part of the hydrological cycle.

Source: The Guardian