Inflation on track to fall within central bank’s target

The Philippines inflation is likely to slow this year to fall within the central bank’s target range, but higher transport charges and domestic rice production pose upside risks, the World Bank said.

In its latest monthly update, the World Bank said that the entry of more rice imports under lower tariffs should help keep inflation within the government’s 2-4% target.

“Inflation resumed its downward trend in August and is on track to fall within target this year,” the Washington-based lender said.

The consumer price index (CPI) eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July. Inflation averaged 3.6% in the first seven months.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects inflation to average 3.4% this year.

“The balance of risks to the outlook has shifted toward the downside given expected reductions in rice prices as more imports arrive under the reduced tariff regime,” the World Bank said.

An executive order cutting tariffs on rice to 15% from 35% took effect in July. This helped rice inflation ease to 14.7% in August from 20.9% in July.

However, the World Bank said higher transport and electricity charges, as well as possible global oil and food price shocks still provide upside risks to the inflation outlook.

“Domestic rice production and prices also remain vulnerable with the La Niña weather phenomenon expected to bring more rainfall and intense typhoons in the remaining months of the year,” World Bank said.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said recent external and domestic developments have given the BSP more space for policy easing.

“Peso appreciation, driven by a wider US interest rate differential, supports domestic disinflation. This gives more room for further normalization of domestic monetary policy,” it said.

The BSP began its easing cycle in August by cutting the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate by 25 bps to 6.25% from the over 17-year high of 6.5%.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said the Monetary Board could implement two more rate cuts at its last two meetings on Oct. 16 and Dec. 19.

The latest policy adjustments will also support faster bank lending, the World Bank said.

“Along with lower inflation, the reductions in the real interest rate, and lower reserve requirements could spur demand for credit in the near term by improving business and consumer sentiment,” World Bank said.

“The BSP estimates the full impact of these policy adjustments will be felt with a lag of 12-15 months.”

This month, the BSP will reduce the RRR for big banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 bps to 7% from 9.5%.

It will also reduce the ratio for digital banks by 200 bps to 4%, thrift banks by 100 bps to 1%, and rural banks and cooperative banks by 100 bps to 0%.

The World Bank noted the beginning of the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle also helped increase inflows into the Philippines’ financial markets.

“Aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have made assets in emerging economies more attractive to international investors and enhanced capital inflows,” the World Bank said.

The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points last month, bringing its key policy rate within 4.75-5%.

Meanwhile, the World Bank said manufacturing sector’s performance will likely remain “modest” amid weak external demand for Philippine exports.

Source: Business World

Inflation slows to 1.9% in September

Headline inflation in September fell sharply to its lowest rate in more than four years, driven by a slower rise in costs for food, transport, housing, and utilities like water and electricity, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported.

Preliminary data from the agency showed the consumer price index slowed to 1.9 percent year on year in September, easing from 3.3 percent in August and 6.1 percent in 2023.

This was also lower than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ projection of 2 to 2.8 percent from the previous month, as well as the 2.6 percent average inflation forecast reported in an Inquirer poll of 10 economists conducted last week.

“The downtrend in the overall inflation in September was primarily brought about by the slower annual increment in the index of food and non-alcoholic beverages at 1.4 percent from 3.9 percent in the previous month,” the PSA said in a statement.

Inflation print in September marked the slowest growth in more than four years or since the 1.6 percent logged in May 2020. Stripping out seasonality factors, month-on-month inflation fell by 0.1 percent in September.

For the first nine months, inflation averaged 3.4percent, still better than the 6.6 percent in September 2023.

Source: Inquirer

Easing inflation boosts workers’ spending power

The expected decline in inflation in the coming months should help boost household spending and benefit the labor sector, GlobalSource Partners said.

“The expected decline in the inflation rate may be expected to boost private consumption, thus supporting strong GDP (gross domestic product) performance. This in turn can paint a more positive employment outlook,” GlobalSource Country Analysts Diwa C. Guinigundo and Wilhelmina C. Mañalac said in a report.

Headline inflation eased to 3.3% in August from 4.4% in July as food and transport cost growth decelerated. The August reading fell within the central bank’s 2-4% target for the year.

The Philippine economy grew by a higher-than-expected 6.3% in the second quarter, as government spending and investment offset weak consumption.

Household consumption refers to purchases made by households to meet their basic needs. It weakened to 4.6% in the second quarter from 5.5% a year earlier.

Despite strong growth in the second quarter, GlobalSource analysts noted that labor indicators remained weak.

Unemployment rose to a one-year high of 4.7% in July as new graduates entered the workforce, the Philippine Statistics Authority said last week.

This translated to 2.38 million unemployed individuals, against 2.29 million last year. This was also 46.6% higher than the 1.62 million jobless a month prior.

GlobalSource noted any increase in the jobless rate still points to “economic disenfranchisement.”

“Any percentage increase in the unemployment rate means economic disenfranchisement of those who failed to land a job. The challenge of high incidence of poverty remains in the Philippines.”

The Trabaho Para sa Bayan (TPB) Plan and the passage of the Konektadong Pinoy bill are expected to “address structural issues in the country’s quality of economic growth,” the analysts said.

The TPB is a masterplan seeking to help upskill workers and link them to job opportunities. It is expected to be ready by November, the National Economic and Development Authority has said.

The Konektadong Pinoy bill aims to improve internet access in underserved areas. The bill remains in committee.

Source: Business World