Philippine population seen among the youngest in the region — AMRO

The Philippine population is expected to be among the youngest in the region, with the country still in the early stage of its demographic transition as fertility rates remain high and the number of working-age individuals seen to peak by 2051 — the latest among Southeast Asian economies, a think tank said.

The latest Regional Economic Outlook report by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) showed the Philippines’ median age stood at 24.5 years in 2021, the second-youngest in the region after Laos (23.8 years).

The country’s median age was lower than Cambodia (26.5), Malaysia (29.9), Myanmar (29), Indonesia (29.4), Brunei Darussalam (31.8), Vietnam (32), Thailand (39.3), China (37.9), Singapore (41.8), South Korea (43.4), Hong Kong (44.9) and Japan (48.4).

AMRO data also showed the Philippines’ average population growth was 1.8% as of 2021, the second-fastest in the region after Malaysia (1.81%).

The Philippines’ peak population is expected by 2092, the latest among the ASEAN member-countries plus China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan.

Peak population refers to the year when the total population/share of working population is projected to reach the highest level.

“Nearly all ASEAN+3 economies have seen their populations peak, led by Japan in 2010, while China reached its peak in 2021. Thailand will be the first in ASEAN to reach its population peak — projected around 2030 — while economies like Lao PDR and the Philippines are not expected to see their populations decline in the next 40 years,” AMRO said.

The report also showed the Philippines had the third-fastest average growth in the working age population at 2.27%, behind Malaysia (2.41%) and Laos (2.39%).

Working age population refers to those aged 15 to 64.

However, the Philippines will only see its working age population peak in 2051, the latest among ASEAN+3.

Several ASEAN+3 economies have already seen a peak in working age population, namely Japan (1991), China (2009), Singapore (2010), Hong Kong (2011), Thailand (2012), Vietnam (2013), South Korea (2015), Brunei (2018) and Malaysia (2022).

Aside from the Philippines, only Myanmar, Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos have yet to see the peak level of their working age population.

AMRO noted that ASEAN+3’s working-age population by 2050 will be 12% smaller than in 2021, “equivalent to about 190 million workers exiting the workforce.”

“Except for two, all others in the ASEAN+3 region will be technically considered ‘aging societies’ by the end of this decade. Within the next decade, the region’s working population will start to decline, and the age profile of the labor force will be gradually dominated by older workers,” AMRO said.

It said the Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia and Laos are still in the early stage of the demographic transition, “with fertility rates still high (although declining).”

Data showed the Philippines has the highest fertility rate in the ASEAN+3 region at 2.75 live births per woman. 

“By 2035, all economies in the region are expected to have sub replacement fertility rates with the exception of only one, the Philippines,” AMRO Group Head and Principal Economist Allen Ng said in a hybrid briefing on Monday.

The Philippines’ elderly population is only at 5.3% of the total population as of 2021, the second lowest after Laos (4.4%).

The country’s old-age dependency ratio, which is the old-age population divided by the working age population, stood at 8.3%.

Mr. Ng said aging is a “critical challenge” for the ASEAN+3 region.

“The problem of becoming old before becoming rich is a concern for many economies especially the lower-middle and middle-income economies in the region because this implies that these economies could have less resources to manage the challenges that aging brings,” he said.

AMRO forecasts that by 2050 nearly 44% of the world’s centenarians will come from the region, particularly in China, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand.

“Rapid aging is triggering fiscal concerns due to the potential rise in healthcare costs and pension liabilities, on top of the needed infrastructure spending that is required to sustain growth,” AMRO said.

Source: Business World

PHL population projected to top 138 million by 2055

The population is projected to increase to around 138.67 million by 2055 under a moderate-growth scenario, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

The high-growth scenario projects population of 145.37 million by 2055, with the low-growth projection at 132.32.

The moderate-growth projections indicate that in 35 years, around 29.47 million individuals will have been added to the 2020 midyear population of 109.20 million, the report added.

The 2020 Census-Based National Population Projections are available in three fertility scenarios, the PSA said.

The census adopted the Cohort-Component Method which considers the three demographic processes of fertility mortality and migration to derive population change.

“The Philippine population is projected to increase for the next 35 years across different Total Fertility Rate (TFR) scenarios,” the PSA said in its report.

The census also found that about 8.5% of the population in mid-2020 were aged 60 years and over. This percentage is expected to increase to about 19.6% by mid-2055.

On the other hand, the percentage of children under five years of age is expected to decline from 10.2% in 2020 to 6% in 2055.

Meanwhile, the working-age population, consisting of individuals ages 15 to 64 years old, accounted for 64% of the midyear population in 2020. This group is expected to comprise 67% of the projected midyear population by 2055.

Source: Business World

Demographic challenges

Amid projections that the country’s population will reach 115 million by the end of the year, from 109 million in 2020, Malacañang last week announced the approval of the Marcos administration’s long-term plan for managing and harnessing population growth to achieve its development agenda.

Memorandum Circular No. 40 directs all government agencies, local government units, and government-owned and -controlled corporations to “undertake efforts’’ to support the Philippine Population and Development Plan of Action (PPD-POA) 2023-2028, described as the “overall blueprint for inter-agency collaboration to optimize demographic opportunities and address remaining population challenges.”

The Commission on Population and Development (CPD), as the Commission on Population or PopCom is now called, will be the plan’s lead implementing agency.

The creation of a plan of action is indeed necessary, as the Philippines, according to CPD deputy executive director Lolito Tacardon, is now the 13th most populous country in the world, and the seventh in the Asia-Pacific region.

What is more interesting, however, are findings that the country’s fertility rate has slowed down and that the majority of the population belongs to the working-age group. Such findings have raised hopes that with the right conditions, the Philippines will reap the so-called demographic dividend, or economic growth brought about by changes in the characteristics of the population.

The results of the 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey showed that the total fertility rate of Filipino women aged 15 to 49 has declined from 2.7 children in 2017 to 1.9 children in 2022, or below the replacement level of 2.1. It also indicated a steady decline from 6.0 children in 1973.“

Total fertility [in the Philippines] showed that a woman of reproductive health normally gives birth to two children only … This means that the total fertility level slows down the country’s population growth,’’ said Tacardon.

Experts have yet to determine whether the lower fertility rate could be attributed to the successful implementation of the reproductive health law during the Aquino and Duterte administrations, or the economic shock dealt by the global COVID-19 pandemic, which forced already hard-up families to tighten their expenses and made couples postpone having more children.

Tacardon pointed out that the decrease in fertility rate has a bearing on the age structure, so that the “dominant” sector of the population now belongs to the working group aged 15 to 64, while dependents, those aged zero to 14, “are getting fewer in number.” This means, he said, that if the country becomes successful in harnessing the working-age population, “there is a chance to accelerate economic development.’’

“If all or many are working, all will contribute to development rather than [be among those] receiving help from the government,’’ Tacardon said.

That, in sum, is the big IF. Although we’re on our way to experiencing the so-called demographic sweet spot—when the optimal number of the population is of working age with few dependents—the country’s high unemployment rate, pervasive poverty, and other socioeconomic woes will make it impossible to reap the much-desired demographic dividend.

As United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) country representative to the Philippines Dr. Leila Joudane noted, the Philippines is at a “unique crossroads with its changing demographics,” with a declining fertility rate providing “a window of opportunity [to have a] productive population larger than the dependent population.”

UNFPA however cautioned that “[t]he demographic dividend is not automatic. The country will have to make the right investments and policy decisions in order for it to reap its benefits, by investing in people throughout their life course.’’

Joudane stressed that while the demographic dividend “can be a powerful force …[to be able] to reap its benefits, we need to ensure the rights of people—especially those most left behind—and provide access to quality education, health care, and employment opportunities. We need to also address gender inequality and other injustices that limit people from reaching their full potential.’’

The challenge then to the Marcos administration is clear. The policies and programs spelled out or contained in the PPD-POA are most effectively achieved if the government were to work harder to curb unemployment and create job opportunities right here in the country.

It would be a tragedy for the Philippines to continue to waste its pool of working-age citizens with ill-advised policies that push them to seek better-paying jobs abroad or to offer those who choose to stay little opportunity to improve their lives and get out of the vicious cycle of poverty.

As long as the government depends heavily on overseas Filipino workers to keep the economy afloat instead of providing decent jobs to lift millions from poverty, all these plans of action will be good only on paper and will remain as unfulfilled promises.

Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer