House-sellers forced to temper prices

The rise in stamp duty in England next month has prompted a rush to sell, leading to the widest choice for buyers since 2015

Homeowners trying to sell their property are facing the toughest competition in a decade, according to research from the property website Rightmove.

March has historically been one of the best months for property sellers, but the average price of a home coming to market has risen by only 1.1 per cent to £371,870 this month, as the number of new sellers hits its highest level since 2015.

Colleen Babcock, a property expert at Rightmove, said those who were finding buyers were working hard with their agents to “price competitively”.

“The big milestone ahead in England is the stamp duty deadline and, with a massive logjam of 575,000 moves going through the legal completion process, many cost-conscious buyers will be doing all they can to get their move over the line and avoid unnecessary extra tax,” she said.

Rightmove expects there to be 1.15 million property transactions this year. About 74,000 moves, including 25,000 first-time buyers, are expected to miss the March 31 deadline and complete in April.

Tom Bill, of Knight Frank, the estate agent, said despite the prospect of higher stamp duty in the new tax year buyers had started the year cautiously.

“Most mortgage rates have remained stubbornly on the wrong side of 4 per cent due to volatility on global markets, which means equity-rich, needs-driven buyers have been more active by comparison,” he said.

“We expect low single-digit house price growth this year, but this month’s spring statement and the future rate of UK inflation will be key factors in setting the trajectory of the housing market in 2025.”

Separate research from Savills, the estate agent, found the UK housing market returned to growth last year, driven by a £22.3 billion increase in spending on house purchases. It found the total value of the UK housing market grew by 6.3 per cent to £379 billion.

There were 1.1 million transactions at an average sale price of £343,822. The increase in spending on house purchases was largely driven by a much higher use of mortgage debt, up 18.1 per cent to £24.3 billion.

The greatest increase in mortgage debt was among first-time buyers, where it rose by 21.4 per cent to £12.2 billion.

Source: The Times

More Filipinos choosing to rent–not buy–homes

More Filipino families were choosing to rent spaces rather than own homes, a “notable shift” that was more common among households in the urban jungle of Metro Manila as high costs and slow wage growth dash homeownership ambitions.

That was according to the 2021 results of the Consumer Finance Survey released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which conducts the nationwide triennial poll to check the financial condition of Filipino households.

Results of a survey of 16,212 families between March and December 2022 showed 11.3 percent of respondents preferred rental accommodations in 2021—the year when the economy slowly reopened from pandemic-led lockdowns that threw the Philippines into a recession.

That was higher than the 10.2 percent recorded in the previous survey round in 2018.

By area, renting or leasing was more common in the National Capital Region (NCR) at 34.9 percent, followed by Balance Luzon at 10.6 percent. But it was less popular in Visayas and Mindanao, where homeownership rates are particularly high.

Nevertheless, survey data showed seven in every 10 families in the country owned or co-owned a house.

Homeownership in areas outside of NCR was at 73.9 percent, much higher than the 43.9 percent rate for the densely populated Metro Manila, where sluggish wage growth may not keep up with rising home prices.

Even during the pandemic, BSP data showed residential property prices in the country grew by 4.9 percent in the final quarter of 2021.

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Apart from the shifts in the mode of home acquisition, the latest BSP survey also provided other insights into the financial condition of Filipino families.

Data showed nonfinancial assets continued to form the foundation of Filipino household wealth portfolios, with home appliances and equipment still being the most commonly owned assets at 96.6 percent.

Within the appliance category, mobile phones (92.8 percent) continued to surpass televisions (81.1 percent) as the most common household item.

Residential properties (69.9 percent) were the second most commonly owned nonfinancial asset of households, followed by vehicles (35.3 percent). Among vehicles, motorcycles (61.7 percent) continued to be the most popular.

The composition of financial assets revealed interesting patterns of financial behavior. Deposit accounts recorded the highest ownership rates at 35.3 percent, followed by traditional cash savings kept at home (28.7 percent) and the rapidly growing category of e-money accounts (24.3 percent).

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Source: Inquirer

Trump’s Policies Could Raise US Home Prices

Tariffs and deportations threaten to make housing more expensive, pushing homeownership out of reach for millions.

Donald Trump campaigned on bringing down the cost of living, including house prices. But his administration is embracing policies that probably will make housing more expensive. Putting tariffs on Canadian lumber, drywall from Mexico, and imported appliances raise home prices. And deporting millions of undocumented workers will hamstring a construction industry where just under a quarter of workers are undocumented immigrants, said the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

“Anything that pushes the price of a home [or] build costs higher is going to be net detrimental for home buyers right now,” says Rick Palacios Jr. of real estate research firm John Burns Research and Consulting. “They are having a tough time as it is.” The new Trump policies come at a precarious time for the housing industry. Home prices hover at record levels, largely because construction has failed to keep up with demand.

The combination of high home prices and high mortgage rates has pushed homeownership out of reach for millions of Americans. There are few reasons to think the picture for buyers will dramatically improve this year. “The spring selling season will be very challenging if we don’t see some relief on rates,” says Ivy Zelman, executive vice president of housing research firm Zelman & Associates.

Mortgage rates have fallen to a recent 6.76%, but remain high. To be sure, Trump’s drive to cut regulations and lower interest rates could spur both home building and housing demand. The president directed agencies to lower the cost of housing and increase the supply of homes in an executive order decrying the burden that regulatory requirements add to the costs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s focus on lowering long-term yields could also be a boon for buyers. The U.S. housing crisis is a supply and- demand problem. It would take three or more years of home building at current rates to meet the need for 3.7 million units, estimates Freddie Mac Deputy Chief Economist Len Kiefer.

The country has built an average of only one million single-family homes over the past five years, a trend that forecasters expect to continue in 2025. “The only way that we are going to solve [high home prices] is to put more supply on the market,” says Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, or NAHB, noting that both presidential candidates ran on improving housing affordability. “Some of the actions we’ve seen after that are maybe running counter to that.”

Inflation hit every part of the economy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, and home materials were whacked particularly hard: The cost of construction materials is up more than 30%since the pandemic began, according to the NAHB. As lockdowns snarled supply chains, builders faced significant shortages of nearly everything, from windows and doors to home appliances, right when buyer demand was reaching its zenith.

It could get worse. New tariffs, including those on Canada and Mexico, complicate home building supply chains and ultimately drive up costs for buyers, the industry warns. “The cost of building is now just going to go up, and is ultimately going to be borne by the home buyer or renter,” says the NAHB’s Tobin. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which produce lumber and the gypsum used in drywall, are of concern—as are appliances from China.

The president announced the tariffs in early February before postponing enforcement of those on Canada and Mexico. An indication of future construction, the NAHB’s sentiment index, dropped in February by five points, its greatest decline since last May. “Uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” says Robert Dietz, the trade group’s chief economist.

“There is now more concern around deportation risk,” says Zelman, the housing researcher. A quarter of home builder respondents to the firm’s January survey said that the fear of immigration service raids resulted in higher levels of absenteeism among subcontractors, with the greatest impacts in Baton Rouge, La.; Chicago; Bakersfield, Calif.; San Antonio and Austin, Texas; Greensboro, N.C.; and Myrtle Beach, S.C. Risks exist outside of home supply.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage market giants that buy, securitize, and guarantee loans from lenders, have been under government conservatorship since the 2008-09 financial crisis. The first Trump administration sought to remove the companies from conservatorship but stopped short. If the mortgage giants ultimately lose their implied government guarantees, mortgage rates would probably climb. “Our housing finance system, while it’s probably not how you would have drawn it up on a whiteboard from scratch, is the envy of the world,” says Bob Broeksmit, the CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“Any responsible exit would be accompanied by a legislated explicit guarantee on the mortgage-backed securities of Fannie and Freddie so as not to jeopardize that system.” How—and whether—the administration releases the companies from conservatorship has yet to be seen. Bill Pulte, Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency— which regulates Fannie and Freddie— noted the risks at his confirmation hearing in February.

“While their conservatorship should not be indefinite, any exit from conservatorship must be carefully planned to ensure the safety and soundness of the housing market without upward pressure on mortgage rates,” said Pulte, whose grandfather started home builder PulteGroup, of which Bill Pulte is a former director.

Home purchases have already slowed because of high prices and a lack of resale inventory. Builders have been offering incentives to lure buyers, and investors are souring on the sector. The iShares U.S.Home Construction exchange-traded fund is down about 6.1%so far this year, compared with the S&P 500 index’s 1.9%loss. “The worry in the stocks is that margins are going to compress,” says BTIG analyst Carl Reichardt.

The headwinds could weigh on new-home construction for months or even years. That could push up prices further. “Anything that makes home prices increase more than they would otherwise is concerning,” says Broeksmit of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “We don’t want a generation that has given up on homeownership.” 

SourceL: Barrons