Global construction activity is now forecast to fall 1.6% in 2023 and rebound 0.5% in 2024 to $9.6tn. China’s real estate downturn continues to dominate the global outlook. We now expect a slower recovery in both residential and non-residential building activity – and anticipate a more muted recovery in Chinese GDP over the medium term.
The decline in residential building activity is now forecast to steepen over this year, pulled down by downgrades in the US outlook following weaker than expected Q2 data. In addition, Oxford Economics now forecast a softer recovery in China’s real estate sector. Nonetheless, signs of growth will begin to show into 2024, supported by a rebound in US residential activity.
Non-residential building is forecast to slope down further largely due to the Chinese real estate downturn. This offsets upgrades in the Americas following stronger than expected construction data for manufacturing buildings.
Upgrades in civil engineering activity will prevent further declines, as increased Chinese fiscal expenditure helps counteract the repercussions of the real estate downturn. Oxford Economics has also upgraded their outlook in Saudi Arabia following a reassessment of the Saudi government’s commitment to Vision 2030. Activity will continue to be supported globally by a wave of public stimulus, including the US’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Next Generation EU fund, and the Chinese Government’s response to the real estate downturn.
Source: Oxford Economics
Comentarios