Metro Manila condo launches fell to lowest level in 5 years

New condominium launches in Metro Manila slumped to a five-year low in the first quarter, as property developers focus on clearing their existing inventory, according to property consultancy firm Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC).

LPC’s latest Philippine Property Market Report showed new condominium launches in Metro Manila plunged by 77% to 1,347 units in the January-to-March period from 5,928 units in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This was also the lowest number of units launched since the 9,392 units in the first quarter of 2020 when the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began.

In a statement, LPC said developers are “focusing on marketing existing inventory, particularly within the midrange segment, before rolling out new projects.”

Leechiu Director for Research and Consultancy Roy Amado L. Golez, Jr. said the drop in new residential condominium projects reflects developers’ lack of confidence in the market.

“The significant number of supply in the market dictates that developers will slow down their launches. But then at the end of the year, we’ll likely see the same blip upwards in terms of total supply,” he said at a media briefing.

LPC data showed a 14% quarter-on-quarter improvement in sales take-up with 6,500 units sold in the first quarter, amid rate cuts by the central bank. However, this was a far cry from the 13,246 units sold in the first quarter of 2020.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, bringing the key rate to 5.75%. The BSP has signaled it will continue easing this year.

“We’ve seen a good start for the year for the residential market. But we need to move with caution for now due to very recent developments in the world capital markets. For developers, they will need to be more aggressive with their marketing: their promos and payment terms,” Mr. Golez said.

Mr. Golez said buyers should take advantage of “a short window of opportunity to acquire property at favorable terms while supply is not yet at comfortable levels.”

Metro Manila still has an oversupply of condominiums, mainly in the mid-market to upscale segments and in areas outside central business districts that were affected by the government’s ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO).

As of end-March, LPC data showed Metro Manila had about 81,400 available condo units, which may take 38 months or about three years to be fully sold.

“Most developers, or practically all, are reluctant to decrease prices. But in effect, what they’re trying to do is offer decreased prices by offering discounts as well as extended payment terms,” Mr. Golez said.

Mr. Golez said he expects developers to limit their project launches for the next six months.

“In the next six months, I think these (launches) will remain low, but as take-up improves, I think they will recover, because now, there are only limited launches,” he told BusinessWorld after the briefing.

Meanwhile, the office market saw a 7% year-on-year increase in demand of 355,000 square meters (sq.m.) despite the absence of POGOs and limited government take-up, LPC said.

“The main difference between this quarter and the first quarter of 2024 is the 56% increase in BPO (business process outsourcing) demand coming from specifically one segment, which are the global in-house centers,” Mikko Baranda, LPC director for commercial leasing, told the briefing.

Global in-house centers are involved in healthcare, banking, financial services, and insurance sectors.

“A lot of these companies, and probably also predicated with what’s happening all over the world, are looking at the Philippines again to offshore and outsource work,” Mr. Baranda said, citing foreign companies like JPMorgan keen on growing their footprint in the country.

In the first quarter, lease transactions involving IT-BPOs reached 185,000 sq.m. of office space, while those for traditional offices reached 94,000 sq.m.

The nationwide office vacancy rate stood at 17% in the first quarter. In Metro Manila, the office vacancy rate stood at 16% — with the highest in Taguig at 24% and the lowest in Bonifacio Global City (10%).

For 2025, office net take-up is expected to jump by an annual 16% to 490,000 sq.m.

“The office market in the Philippines continues to show grit in the face of global and local challenges. The IT-BPM sector remains to be a reliable key driver of growth, while traditional office tenants are also increasingly active. With a promising outlook for the rest of the year, we expect resiliency amidst potential headwinds,” Mr. Baranda said.

LPC said a total of 2 million sq.m. is forecast to be added to the Philippine office supply in the next four years.

Meanwhile, the country’s retail market has already recovered from the pandemic.

“The general population has largely come back to the malls, and back to their consumption behavior. Developers are largely confident of the market with 105 malls upcoming nationwide [in the next six years],” Mr. Golez said. 

By developer, SM Prime Holdings, Inc. accounted for 29% of upcoming malls, followed by Robinsons Land Corp. at 28%, and DoubleDragon Corp. at 15%. Other developers expected to launch new malls in the six-year period include Ayala Land, Inc. (10%), Megaworld Corp. (7%), and Rockwell Land Corp. (2%).

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Source: Manila Times